Apr 19, 2017: Realistic OLED input capacity is expected to rise at a 40% CAGR from 7.6M m2 in 2016 to 40.5M m2 in 2021, says a Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC) report on OLED supply, OLED demand and the OLED equipment market.
According to the report, mobile displays are expected to account for at least a 90% share each year. OLED panel shipments are expected to rise at a 30% CAGR from 395M in 2016 to 1.46B in 2021.
According to DSCC CEO Ross Young, “OLEDs are growing rapidly as the entire smartphone market is expected to convert to OLEDs over the next 6-8 years. OLEDs offer improved display performance (contrast, motion performance, viewing angles) and their ability to be made flexible will enable larger displays in existing form factors through foldable and rollable implementations. In addition to improved display performance and larger sizes, OLEDs will also result in lighter weight, increased ruggedness and innovative foldable and rollable designs, enabling smartphone brands and OLED suppliers to increase their ASPs. With Samsung’s and Apple’s smartphone brands expected to control over 60% of OLED capacity through 2019, there is a legitimate fear among other smartphone brands that they won’t be able to secure sufficient OLED supply and those brands are encouraging more panel suppliers to enter the OLED market and existing suppliers to add more capacity by making capacity investments, up-front payments, etc. In addition, with Samsung Display proving that OLEDs can generate higher margins than LCDs and OLED smartphone demand strong, most of the display industry is now racing to build mobile OLED capacity. Because OLED fabs are significantly more capital intensive than LCD fabs, this will translate into record spending on display manufacturing equipment in 2017 and elevated spending for years until the smartphone and other applicable mobile markets are fully penetrated which we don’t expect to occur for some time. This report quantifies for the first time how many OLED fabs will be necessary to saturate the smartphone market. We also expect to see spending on OLED TV capacity increase significantly from 2020 on 10.5G fabs as ink jet printing and soluble materials mature.”
Highlights from this report include:
- All OLED fab investments by phase
- 72 different phases of OLED fab capacity investments from 2016 to 2021, including 12 lower probability fabs.
- OLED fab capacity expressed on an input and output basis
- Realistic OLED input capacity is expected to rise at a 40% CAGR from 7.6M m2 in 2016 to 40.5M m2 in 2021.
- Mobile displays are expected to account for at least a 72% share of OLED input capacity each year.
- Apple is expected to account for 28% of mobile input capacity in 2018, from 0% in 2016, before declining to 20% of capacity by 2021 as others grow.
- Most of the mobile capacity investments will be for flexible displays. As a result, flexible mobile OLED capacity will overtake rigid capacity in Q4’17 on an input basis and Q2’18 on an output basis.
- Korea is expected to account for the highest share of capacity through the forecast, but falling from 94% in 2016 to 69% in 2021.
- China’s OLED capacity is expected to rise at a 99% CAGR with its share rising from 5% in 2016 to 27% in 2021.
- OLED TV capacity is expected to rise at a 37% CAGR on an input basis and 33% on an output basis in 55” equivalents to 8.4M 55” panels in 2021.
- OLED panel shipments are expected to rise at a 30% CAGR from 395M in 2016 to 1.46B in 2021.
- Mobile displays are expected to account for at least a 90% share each year.
- VR Headsets and Smart Watches are expected to be the #2 and #3 applications on a unit basis depending on the year.
- OLED TVs are expected to rise at a 47% CAGR and reach 5.9M units in 2021.
- OLED smartphone shipments are expected to rise at a 26% CAGR and should overtake LCDs in the smartphone market in 2019.
- LCD smartphones are projected to fall at an 8% CAGR from 1.2B units in 2016 to 806M in 2021.
- With OLED capacity tight in 2016 and Apple and Samsung expected to consume most of the OLED supply growth in 2017 and 2018, the OLED supply/demand situation is expected to remain tight through 2019.
- There is no opportunity for much of an OLED smartphone display surplus until 2019 due to strong mobile OLED demand. The surplus in 2019 is expected to be 10%.
Big factors in the OLED supply/demand outlook include:
- How quickly can new entrants ramp their OLED capacity, how profitable will they be and will they delay or accelerate future investments?
- How much capacity will be dedicated to lower yielding and larger foldable and rollable products? We show the highest yielding OLED suppliers moving to foldable and rollable which will significantly reduce the amount of output capacity.
OLED deposition market
- On a revenue basis, the OLED deposition (VTE + IJP) market rose 211% to $1.14B in 2016 and is expected to grow 90% in 2017 to $2.2B and 8% in 2018 to $2.3B before declining 13% to $2.0B in 2019. The OLED deposition market will become the #2 display equipment category from 2017 after lithography.
- OLED deposition unit shipments rose 83% in 2016 and are expected to rise 64% in 2017 before falling 6% in 2018.
- From 2015-2019 by country, Korea is expected to lead China with a 51% to 42% advantage.
- From 2015 to 2019, Samsung Display is expected to lead with a 20% share, spending over $2B on OLED deposition. LGD is expected to spend $1.7B and a 23% share followed by BOE with $1.1B and a 13% share.
- While Hitachi was the early leader with shipments to Samsung’s A1 fab, Tokki has since dominated. Looking at just VTE Systems, we show Tokki earning a 55% revenue share in 2016 and an estimated 76% share in 2017.
- Litho tool shipments are expected to rise by 29% in 2017 with revenues up 34% to a record high $2.7B. In 2018, unit shipments are expected to fall 10% with revenues falling 5% to $2.6B. The lithography market will benefit from higher prices associated with 10.5G a-Si LCD tools and high-resolution 6G LTPS systems.
- OLEDs are expected to overtake LCDs in terms of demand for litho tools. OLED fabs are expected to account for 65% of 2017 units vs. 31% in 2016. In 2019, OLEDs are expected to account for 76% of litho unit demand.
- 6G tools for OLEDs are expected to lead on a substrate size basis due to the large number of 6G OLED fabs coming online and the higher number of masks used in those fabs.
- By country on a unit basis, China is expected to lead in 2016, 2018 and 2019 with Korea having a slight advantage in 2017. From 2016 – 2019, China is expected to install 304 tools for a 54% to 34% advantage over Korea with 194 tools.
- Nikon had a 71% to 29% unit share advantage in 2016. In 2017, Canon is expected to ship more tools to Samsung, which should boost its position and allow them to overtake Nikon with a preliminary 51% to 49% unit share advantage. On a revenue basis, Nikon is expected to hold a slight advantage on 10.5G tool installations.
- OLEDs are expected to take over the ELA market, earning a 93% share in 2017, up from 36% in 2016, on nearly a 200% increase.
- The ELA market is expected to reach a record high in 2017 before declining 6% in 2018.
- China is expected to lead in 2016, 2018 and 2019 with Korea leading in 2017. However, the 2 regions will be very close over the 4-year period with China holding a slight 46% to 45% advantage.
- AP Systems was the #1 supplier in 2016 and is expected to lead in 2017 with a 59% share.
- This highly informative, quarterly report features ~200 PPT slides, three Excel Pivot table files and four other Excel databases. This report is extremely useful to anyone tracking the OLED market and has been adopted by panel manufacturers, equipment suppliers, materials suppliers and financial analysts.